Who are favourites to win the 2026 World Cup?

5 hours ago 2

A split picture of Spain's Lamine Yamal, Argentina's Lionel Messi, England's Harry Kane and France's Kylian Mbappe

The draw for the 2026 World Cup has been made and that means the countdown to next year's tournament in the United States, Canada and Mexico is on.

There are sure to be breakout performances, shocks, surprises, thrills and spills.

But who are the favourites according to the bookmakers, the form guide and the pundits?

The full line-up is not yet complete, with six places to be decided through play-offs in March.

But we've taken a look at who is in contention to lift the coveted trophy in New York come July.

Germany, Spain and Belgium have the three 'easiest' 2026 World Cup groups, according to the Fifa world rankings of the countries involved.

The Netherlands and France have the toughest tests by that measure.

Who are the in-form teams?

England qualified for the 2026 World Cup with a perfect record, winning all of their matches without conceding a goal.

Runners-up at the past two European Championships and World Cup quarter-finalists in Qatar three years ago, there is genuine hope that this will be the Three Lions' year under new head coach Thomas Tuchel.

The bookmakers also fancy England to do well in the summer, with the majority putting them second favourites behind Spain.

European champions Spain were close to joining England with a perfect campaign, but a 2-2 draw against Turkey in their final qualifying match put the only small blemish on their record.

Spain were deserved winners at Euro 2024, beating England in the final, and in teenage Barcelona winger Lamine Yamal they have one of the best players in the world.

Except for a penalty shootout defeat in June's Nations League final against Portugal, they have not lost a competitive game since facing Scotland in March 2023.

France, runners-up in Qatar in 2022, are also strong competitors for their final major tournament under Didier Deschamps and went unbeaten in European qualifying.

Opta's super-computer places the three European sides as the favourites, with Spain given a 17% chance of victory, England 11.8%, and France 14.1%.

Germany, who lost their opening qualifier but won the next five on the spin to book their place, are also highly fancied by the bookmakers and data experts, while Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Croatia and Norway were also unbeaten in European qualifying.

Less impressive was Brazil's qualifying campaign, as they finished fifth in the Conmebol table and lost six of 18 matches. That hasn't stopped a lot of bookmakers placing them as fourth favourites, though, despite Opta putting them down in seventh.

Defending World Cup champions Argentina won the South American qualifying group by some way, finishing nine points above second-placed Ecuador.

Brazil are the only team to ever win back-to-back World Cups, in 1958 and 1962, but with Lionel Messi expected to feature, Argentina will be among the favourites for glory.

The standout side from the Asian qualifying rounds were Japan, who lost just one of their matches on the way to reaching next summer's tournament.

Surprise semi-finalists in Qatar, Morocco won all eight of their African qualifying matches and could again pose a threat to the traditional big nations, while Egypt, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Tunisia were also unbeaten.

However, with Afcon beginning later this month, competing in two major tournaments in the space of six months could prove to be a tough task for the African nations.

Cristiano Ronaldo has announced this will be his final World Cup and his Portugal side should not be discounted, while Euro 2020 champions Italy will have to come through the play-offs to qualify for the World Cup but can never be ruled out on the big stage.

But what about the conditions?

Hosting the World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico in peak summer time has sparked concerns over the extreme heat conditions teams could face.

This summer's Club World Cup, held in the US, faced criticism because of the severe conditions, with Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez saying he felt "dizzy" while playing in "very dangerous" heat.

Research led by Queen's University Belfast found temperatures at 14 of the 16 stadiums being used for the 2026 World Cup could exceed potentially dangerous levels during the tournament.

It is fair to say certain nations will cope better with the heat - some European nations could struggle and England have expressed a desire for later kick-off times to avoid peak temperatures.

Conditions are likely to favour South American nations while African teams could also benefit, although there has never been a World Cup winner from the continent.

Playing at home could also benefit the hosts, although the scattered venues and vast distances between stadiums mean it could also be tough for any side to settle at the tournament.

Ten of the 11 World Cups held in Europe have been won by European teams, but it is a completely different story when the tournament is played in the Americas.

Each of the seven tournaments hosted there had featured a South American winner until Germany broke the streak in 2014, and since then Argentina have won in the heat of Qatar.

Spain were the first European team to win the World Cup outside the continent, when they lifted the trophy in South Africa in 2010.

All eyes will be on the announcement on Saturday of where teams will be playing their games - with any marginal advantages welcome.

What do the pundits say?

Speaking about England's group on BBC Radio 5 Live's reaction show, former striker Dion Dublin said: "I always worry about Croatia. I just think they have so much experience, they have the quality to go with it as well.

"Ghana can pull out some incredible performances. They are a strong African nation who will make it incredibly difficult. 'Concerned' is the right word."

European football journalist Julien Laurens said: "I know Spain lost the Nations League final to Portugal, but they've been really outstanding since Luis de la Fuente took over.

"The Euros was great - even if England pushed them well in the final, I think they were deserved winners.

"We [France] are relying on Mbappe, but I don't think we have many weaknesses in this team."

Speaking about Germany, Laurens added: "You just don't know right now what kind of Germany you will see.

"They are still capable of being very good and Jamal Musiala will come back in January and we will see what kind of fitness he will have for the World Cup. And if Florian Wirtz is in top form, Musiala is in top form, with Nick Woltemade and Kai Havertz there's something really interesting there attacking-wise.

"Defensively, I'm not sure really."

South American football journalist Tim Vickery said: "Brazil are happy with their draw.

"New Jersey, Boston, Philadelphia, Miami, one in Atlanta - but that's with air conditioning - and Carlo Ancelotti thinks their games are likely to be in the evening and I think they're very happy about that.

"It's all a bit of a rush because Ancelotti's come in last minute. He has vastly improved the side, but what he's trying to do is four up front.

"If Ancelotti can make that attacking talent fire, as he has done in some of the friendlies, then nobody will relish facing Brazil."

Speaking about Argentina, Vickery said: "They are trying to do what has never been done before: nobody has ever retained the World Cup outside of their home continent.

"Things have gone extremely well for Argentina since they won the World Cup. They've won everything.

"They qualified first in qualification by a street and they're not as dependant on Lionel Messi as they once were. And can I whisper this? There have been times where they have even been better without him."